I think we tend to overplay strikeouts since the entire league essentially does it. Brujan is an intriguing prospect but I wonder if he the Rays sending him back down last season and not always starting him means they dont full believe in him. of course as he ages this is more likely to be the case more often, but i think the argument is that he wasnt at the height of his powers last year for physical reasons, and therefore has room to go back up with better health after offseason rest. This group is expected to start the season in the bullpen, but they could all find themselves starting at some point during the season and they all have the talent to deliver quality innings in such a role. Mrquez decided to make life a lot tougher for those who draft him by being much better in Coors (3.67 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) than on the road (5.38/1.40) last year. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Whether Joe sees a lot of playing time or not is hard to tell because its the Rockies and you never know with them. Myles Straw is another speed play where if you are lacking it at this point of the draft he should be your target. And all I mean by that is his SIERA and FIP would be closer to his ERA as opposed to the 4.36 and 4.21 we saw last year. If you have been reading my Roster Reviews, you will see some Bold Predictions tied to outfielders as I have definitely started to zero on some key guys in my early drafts. Mikolas is right there with Waino and Matz as only his IP count holds me back a smidge. And perhaps nowhere is this more apparent than when looking at the arsenals of major league pitchers. Wilson transition to SP. Jay Kay, lets talk about baseball dongs instead. I worry about Kershaws IP output not so much due to more injuries occurring but because I can see the Dodgers massaging his workload throughout the season with an eye on October. Lorenzo Cain doesnt run as much but will still give you double-digit bases. Ive been a mega fan since his prospect days with the Dodgers but maybe thats why Im so cautious because Ive been through all the ups and downs with him. Aces, Must Start, Usually Start, Team Streamer, Standard Streamer, and Deeeep Leagues. Projections like Kiriloff and if he can put up 18 home runs, four steals, and a 2.70 average like they are calling for, that makes him a really solid bench piece. PLEASE STAY HEALTHY. Mookie is still great but with the decline in exit velocity and with just three stolen bases in the second half he might not be as safe as we think. Bassitt gets out of Oakland during the teardown and still has a pitchers park to support him plus a much better team context now. He has a couple sub-4.00 ERA seasons (3.67 in 17, 3.84 in 19) and he has a great shot at his third this year, but the big gain for him leaving Colorado will be in WHIP. I just see Betts as one of the strongest floors in baseball with his skills. With a log jam in Seattle its tough to tell when we will see him but some think it will be sooner than later. It is admittedly hard to be super confident in a reliever ranking after the 10-15 just because who you already have will then dictate where you go later in terms of handcuffing or dipping into other bullpens with lottery tickets, etc so dont betoo locked into the exact order of the ranking sheet. Read the rest of this entry . Ortega could definitely see 15 stolen bases with a middling average and double digit home runs. On the Sleeper and the Bust Patreon, you can see the rankings updated live. If you need PAs Wil Myers is your man at this point. He has a 5.09 career ERA at home. If we see 600 plate appearances we could see Robert have a 25 HR 15 SB type of season with a solid average. Im likely to pass this year and observe (and cheer for him) from the bench. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Copy-and-paste that Brubaker entry for Morgan with minimal changes. 
In the latter formats, Id elevate injury concerns and small sample guys because the replacement level is much higher. J.D. swinging strikes against the Mariners in just six innings of work. I still think Urquidy has a premium season in his arm, he just needs to find some consistent health. He is just one example of someone Id rather buy over Waino (Matz is SP73). He is terrible against LHP so make sure you sit him against them. With the season upon us, it is time to drop my final edition of my positional ranks. Keep his name in mind, but no real need to draft him in redraft leagues right now. Interestingly enough he has raised his barrel rate the last three seasons. Anyway, thats later Pauls problem. Adolis was fantastic in the first half of the season. He was so impressive in his 89.7 IP last year with a 26% K, 7% BB, and 12% SwStr in his 18 starts. If Im making a board of odds for 200+ IP pitchers, Woodruff is very high on the list. Expect more of the same this season. I dont want to take a less talented arm just because he is perceived to be a safer health risk compared to Rodn.
But I, for one, would like to take a break to say Im sorry. mookie was on the field but there were indications that he wasnt completely healthy for much of last season (some kind of nagging hip issue, etc). Heaney is known more for strikeouts, but Andersons K and swinging strike rates arent all that different: 24% K, 12% SwStr for Heaney; 21% K, 11% SwStr for Anderson. Projections peg him for 35 home runs and over 160 R+RBI, I think he can beat those numbers. Gore was rumored to be dealing with the yips last year which is why he threw just 50 IP and never got a call-up despite plenty of need at the big-league level. Maybe Adell is one of those prospects we forget about who suddenly breaks out? Some think we see Riley Greene in the lineup opening day. Please stay healthy. Now one major difference is that Anderson will be in a hybrid role whereas Heaney could be more consistently starting. Civale, Plesac, and Quantrill arent that different. It wouldnt necessarily just be a temporary spot for Lodolo, either. (1.83 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 39% K, & 8% BB in 44.3 IP). Houck and McKenzie are super surgers here and they epitomize my point about betting on the talent. Benintendi is a bit undervalued. Anderson not Heaney is the intriguing new Dodgers lefty for me! In the past three seasons no one has walked up to the plate more than Merrifield. A 26-year-old pedigreed stud with everything we look for in a budding ace is someone I want on my team. These are for standard league setups that include 2B, MI, and UT with 20-game eligibility. He had a 16% K-BB rate, but a 2.0 HR/9 left his 5.34 ERA much higher than his 4.51 SIERA. Injuries hurt his power as we saw a dip in his metrics compared to 2020. Lots of exciting guys, with names you know (and roster). The 34-year-old still isnt signed but if/when he does sign with someone he could give you 15 home runs and 10 bags. Gurriels expected stats all show his 2021 was legit and while a hitter having 20 home runs while hitting .276 is boring its still useful. Some will actually start the season with jobs, others will be among the first wave of call-ups, and then some will have to perform well in the minors to secure a summer call-up. Just standard streamers that you pluck off the wire for a start or two and then move on. The Marlins are incredibly stacked with arms so neither will be pushed to return, but once they are ready to pitch in the majors again, they should garner plenty of attention. Having a thin arsenal and a HR issue fuels his volatility, though I do respect the 4.05 SIERA last year and realize that he isnt too far from being very useful again. Lewis will start the year on the IL but when he is back he could give you a little bit of power and speed. With a 254 BABIP he may have just been unlucky. The Yankees might end up using these young arms to acquire a more established starter Manaea or Montas perhaps? McCutchen landed in a good spot with the Brewers and he had the highest barrel rate of his career last season. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,
Calhoun currently slots in as leadoff according to Roster Resource, Im not sure if that sticks but it would be a nice bump in value for him. He finished 2021 with a 138 wRC+, .346 OBP, 15.9 Barrel%, and .369 wOBA such a good pure hitter. Carrasco still has core skills that can deliver 125-140 strong innings if his body holds up, but we cant fully ignore that the 35-year-old has been through a lot the last few years off the field and that 1.7 HR/9 is a bit alarming, too. DeSclafani was great last year and if you curated his starts a bit, sitting him against the Dodgers and in Coors, you got a 2.18 ERA in 132.3 IP. Last time out, we looked at three players that have started 2022 out with a fizzle but had some underlying metrics that point to better times ahead. The wall moving in will hurt Santander since he is a power bat. Even though it was a whopping 2.3 IP across 3 outings in September, I was pleased that Flaherty finished the season on the mound and was eyeing him as an SP2-3 who could easily emerge to ace-level, but then the shoulder flared up and Im out for now. Gray and Hernandez need to reign in their HR issues if they expect to have any sort of sustained success, but both miss bats at a strong clip when they arent giving up moon shots. That 26% K rate was a product of the shortened 2020 (there were no skill changes fueling it) and as such, he will likely remain a sub-25% guy barring a legitimate change to his approach and/or pitch mix. by Handedness. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Neither Winn nor Otto are in line for a role out of camp, but they are my favorites out of this prospect group. That Skubal was able to post a 4.34 ERA despite his 2.1 HR/9 is pretty impressive, but I still had to drop him a good bit because that kind of longball problem is no joke. What am I missing? The skills are real. Its a matter of his manager giving him a shot. The Rangers could be a sneaky good team this year if a couple of these prospects break the right way for them. I love Greinke going back to KC. They are likely good enough to hold on your reserve instead of throwing back into the pool for someone else to pick up their next good stream(s). I might have found some interest at a better price, but he was SP47 in the 13 Main Events that have taken place. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Grichuk at this point is someone you add for power upside. Baddoo is a true power/speed threat but he has to start hitting LHP better. There is no power here but it also isnt non existent either. Home runs are a major issue when hes off his game (5 in L3 starts pushed his final season ERA to 4.95), but this is a growth profile. Torontos park isnt as dangerous with the humidor and Gausman is better than he was in Baltimore, but its still a difficult division to tour from both the lineup and park standpoints. Pineda was a solid depth pickup for the Tigers and the park move could be a boon, though I doubt it will improve on the 3.62 ERA from last year, but rather allow him to earn it more. Read the rest of this entry , With the so-called sticky-stuff memo getting released almost exactly one year ago, it seems about time to take another peek at which pitchers have been spinning the ball less since the crackdown was announced and how much (if any) their stuff and/or results have been affected since. If Brubaker reigns in his homers (2.0 in 124 IP last year), there is a lot of upside here. After an MVP season he decided to try and change his swing which is very odd. Arozarena didnt produce what most had hoped for. 
I want to just blindly love Manoah and buy in, but I cant ignore the questions: two-pitch arsenal which breeds a platoon split, tough divisional competition, and a bit of a HR issue. The problem could be that he pulled the ball less, I think we could see a bounceback from him. Vaughn had a below-average OPS but his Barrel rate and maxEV both show the type of power potential he has. It is a really interesting class of outfielders with some really fun pockets of talent going in the mid-to-late rounds of drafts. Jesse Winker was traded to Seattle and moves from a hitter-friendly ballpark to a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Here are my current ranks for relief pitchers for 2022, my third of the offseason. The power might be dwindling but the speed still holds true. The Giants love to platoon making Wade a tough buy. Julio bounced up to AA last season and in 206 PAs he hit .362 with a 173 wRC+. His barrel rate has been merely average for the last two seasons, well below his peak of 13.1% back in 2018, and he attempted fewer steals than Juan Soto last year. Haniger finished 2021 with 39 home runs, a .232 ISO, and a 12.6 Barrel%. If youre just joining us, here are the previous ranks for first base, third base, catcher, and outfielders. He may only get 100-120 IP in this first season which makes him a much better fit for deeper formats. Here are my current ranks for starting pitchers for 2022, my third of the offseason. Rosario signing with the Braves could not have been more perfect for him. A terrific matchup play in daily leagues. I can totally see an excellent full season rebound, but he lives on a thin margin with his velo and has always allowed a good bit of hard contact. If he can find something to quell lefties, he can build on a decent 2021 showing. The first run of ranking is about to done and then Ill roll out the update at each position with comments added. What can I say? Last season Reynolds was top 10 in the league in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS. You cant fake that. Cortes is being overlooked despite having the inside track for the 5th starter role in New York. by Handedness, Justin Masons 2022 Relief Pitchers Ranks. Finding playing time could be an issue. That lower expectation of their workloads is baked into their price so if you are willing to put in the effort to properly manage them and deal with some bouts in the bullpen, they can be solid pickups in the mid-to-late rounds (depending on league size). I will continue to update them live on the Sleeper and the Bust Patreon until the season gets underway and in-season as well. More horizontal for that, less vertical for this, one fish, two fish, v fish, nu fish. His 17% K-BB rate is good and helped him put up a 4.04 SIERA despite the 5.36 ERA. Ortega looks like he will lead off for the Cubs offense, they will struggle to produce runs which makes me think they will run a lot. He was named the fourth starter for the Reds: The Reds' 2017 first-round pick and current No. Whitlock could still nab the 5th starters role, but I suspect he at least starts the season in the bullpen at least as a way of managing his innings before getting stretched out to start at some point in the summer. Dozier had a nice second half turnaround by improving his plate discipline and if it sticks he could be a solid late round flier. Renfroe has now hit over 30 home runs in the last two full seasons, but last season he was able to raise his average. Brash has been having an excellent spring and could be in line for the 5th starter role in Seattle. Rodns talent isnt in question, it all comes down to health. Grays move to Minnesota should benefit him substantially. He is only 27 so a bounceback could happen. I realize Ill probably be on the outside looking in if he pops right away since he is being drafted even in most 12-teamers, but thats a risk Im willing to take! Chris Taylor was a pleasant surprise last season as he finished 2021 with 20 home runs, 92 rubs, and 13 stolen bases. Any of these guys can lead a fantasy rotation. That #6 pick would remain his high after 10 more MEs over the weekend while he went as late as #15. As we head into primetime drafting season, I will be rereleasing my positional ranks. I truly wouldnt be surprised if he delivered a 3.90-4.20 ERA across 30 starts this year. I love what Waino did for us last year as a late round/waiver pickup, but Im more interested in finding the next Waino than paying up for him (SP61 in Main Events). I left the high-priced guys behind for analysis and mostly focused on pockets for particular categorical values, sticking to players taken in the latter parts of drafts. He is a massive power source with a 119.0 maxEV and 17.6 Barrel%. Are there ways to improve the format from a fairness perspective. He still missed plenty of bats (27% K, 13% SwStr) and Im willing to believe that a healthy Gonsolin will be more in line with the 2019-20 version over the guy we saw last year. He excelled in a hybrid role that included 14 starts during which he posted a 3.07 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 73.3 innings with 75 Ks. Suzuki should play every day usually it takes a bit of time for overseas players to adjust but I could see 20 home runs with about five steals from him. by Retrosheet. So Eovaldi, Pivetta, Houck locked in. Brantley is really just an average play at this point, can he maybe get you 20 home runs? Read the rest of this entry . I trust both as premiere aces. Sharp stuff in Spring Training has pushed Luzardos stock back up as he rapidly climbs draft boards. Webbs arsenal transformation and residence on one of the best teams in the league (both on and off the field) gives me a lot of confidence in him. Yes please. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman.
Other potential format improvements for leagues, Updated: Friday, July 22, 2022 4:53 AM ET, Park Factors
Going back to the place where he was able to play well should do wonders. Both have historical HR issues, but at least Anderson has Coors as an excuse for a lot of his (1.5 as a Rockie, 1.3 since; Heaney 1.6 career). Still a fantastic player but more of a second-rounder for me. Give me 140-150 innings and Urquidy can definitely put up a Bassitt-esque campaign (3.15 ERA/1.06 WHIP/25% K in 157.3 IP that was SP19). Even with the Rays penchant for protecting their starters, McClanahan should be in line for 160+ IP, something only 39 pitchers achieved last year. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. We saw a nice step forward from 2020 and Bryant should perform just fine in 2022 in Coors. 