Thus far, Aliyev has indicated that he intends to keep up a policy of isolating Karabakh from the outside world and severing its political connections with Armenia. Three months later, the dust has not settled from the latest war. Unless there is a decision by leaders to change official discourses, end hate speech, and reset old narratives, little is likely to change in stories of hatred and bitterness repeated in societies and the media. Pashinyan is the first leader who came to power in post-Soviet Armenia whose agenda wasnt centered around Karabakh, Alexander Iskandaryan, director of the Caucasus Institute in Yerevan, said in an interview. The Republic of Azerbaijan shall guarantee the security of persons, vehicles and cargo moving along the Lachin Corridor in both directions. Battles were already taking place on the outskirts of Karabakh's main city, Stepanakert, and if the conflict had continued the whole of Karabakh would have been lost, he said on Facebook. President Aliyev said the agreement was of "historic importance," and amounted to a "capitulation" by Armenia. Yet, Baku has no obvious interlocutors among the Karabakh Armenians, having accused most of their leaders of criminal activity. Azerbaijans State Oil Fund, worth around $40 billion, has thus far been used to fill gaps in the regular budget. Azerbaijanis say the Karabakh conflict is now resolved and in the past, but this has not translated into magnanimous action toward Armenians. Formally mandated by the OSCE chairperson-in-office (a rotating position held in 2021 by Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde), this mission remains the main internationally sanctioned presence in the region. There is a real sense here that a key victory has been achieved after a very long fight. 
Aliyev noted that a customs regime should be implemented either in both corridors or none of them, adding it would be up to Yerevan to decide, as both options were suitable for Baku. Prisoners are still being held, and remains of dead bodies have not been returned. "Azerbaijan participates in NATO's military training. In the South Caucasus, Can New Trade Routes Help Overcome a History of Conflict? Now the new corridor gives a great chance for Armenia to eliminate the problems related to the transportation of cargos to Iran. This connects to the question of the yet-to-be-defined mandate of the Russian peacekeeping force. In Yerevan, they were welcomed more warmly. As agreed by the Parties, new transport links shall be built to connect the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and the western regions of Azerbaijan. Along with political advantages, the victory of Azerbaijan in the war created substantial economic advantages for itself and regional countries. 1999 - 2022 | Efficacit et Transparence des Acteurs Europens. Russia's defence ministry confirmed that 1,960 personnel would be involved and reports said planes had left an airbase at Ulyanovsk on Tuesday carrying peacekeepers and armoured personnel carriers to Karabakh. But by Tuesday morning, that anger appeared to have died down. The cease-fire is seen as a victory for Azerbaijan and a defeat for Armenia, whose armed forces withdrew in line with the agreement. In the Armenian capital Yerevan, a large crowd gathered to protest against the agreement, according to local media. The planned construction of a railroad between Armenia and Iran through the Megri region has been postponed because of the high costs.
The region is internationally recognised as Azerbaijani but has been run by ethnic Armenians since 1994. But it has points of ambiguity. The Azerbaijani side says that Armenian forces should have withdrawn from Karabakh itself as soon as the Russians were deployed on the ground. 2 Language used in this article aims for neutrality and does not imply a political judgement. It is unclear exactly how many have died. In recent weeks, his tone has changed somewhat, and Aliyevs harshest language has been directed at previous Armenian leadersperhaps because he sees Pashinyan, the co-signatory to the November agreement, as the key figure to help deliver its demands. Aliyev also noted that Azerbaijan proved to be a "reliable partner" of NATO. This article considers what comes next in the Karabakh dispute and if and how international actors can help pave the way for a full peace. However, the team can still usefully monitor the situation on the international Armenia-Azerbaijan border, which is not the responsibility of Russian peacekeepers. Aliyev has already initiated a new six-lane 100-kilometer highway from Fizuli to Shusha. Formally, as far as Baku is concerned, the region no longer exists but is divided up between different Azerbaijani districts. A complete ceasefire and termination of all hostilities in the area of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is declared starting 12:00 am (midnight) Moscow time on November 10, 2020. An extensive program of demining, refurbishment of utilities, and reconstruction is needed before former residents can return, something that could take several years. Yet the conflict has truncated Nagorny Karabakh and cut many of its connections to Armenia, making the region economically much less viable, as a recent report from the International Crisis Group makes clear. Two young students are holding a homemade sign that reads: "Tell the world we are coming home." Both sides deny targeting civilians but accuse the other of doing so. Furthermore, Baku has issued postage stamps with images of parts of Azerbaijani territory, including Karabakh and the recently recaptured districts being disinfected, as if being purged of an infestation of pests clearly intended to represent Armenians. In a broader sense, the corridor promises to give Ankara another route to access the Caspian Sea and the Turkic world in Central Asia. Compared to the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, which connects Azerbaijan to Turkey through Georgia, the road within the new corridor will be about 340 km shorter. The November agreement potentially opens up an opportunity to envisage the South Caucasus anew, with new transport connections and economic cooperation possible for the first time since the Soviet era. Some of these, such as the medieval churches of Dadi Vank, Gtchivank, and Tsitsernavank, as well as the main Armenian cathedral in the town of Shusha (or Shushi), suddenly fell under Azerbaijani control. Now Moscow faces dilemmas as it seeks to pursue different agendas simultaneously. They are seen to stop their vehicle in the liberated region of Kubatly at the sight of an Armenian-language sign, order soldiers to dismantle the fallen sign, and then trample on it. Reprinted with permission from Evangeline McGlynn/Eurasianet. The OSCE co-chairs visited the region once again in December 2020. The agreement imposed an immediate ceasefire, gave a timetable for withdrawal from Azerbaijans occupied regions and the introduction of Russian peacekeepers, and stipulated the need for new transport corridors. The peacemaking forces of the Russian Federation shall be deployed concurrently with the withdrawal of the Armenian troops. On the domestic front, he has repeatedly castigated the opposition Popular Front and Musavat parties, who had formed the government in the 1990s, for losing Azerbaijani territories in the war of 19911994. Local Karabakh Armenians were interviewed thanking Russian soldiers, politicians, and Putin for saving them from destruction by Azerbaijan. Armenia could also significantly benefit from the Nakhchivan corridor if it chooses to return to peaceful policies and cooperation. [Kremlin pool/EPA/EFE], Print Email Facebook Twitter LinkedIn WhatsApp Telegram. Armenians may also be able to travel from Yerevan to southern Armenia and Iran via Nakhichevan, a much easier route than the highland roads of Armenia. Issues that need addressing include the mandate of the Russian peacekeeping mission, the modalities of implementing the projected new transport corridors, the status of the de facto Armenian authorities in Karabakh, and the format and agenda of international talks. First, the two countries must delineate their shared international border in areas where the Republic of Armenia adjoins Azerbaijans Kelbajar, Kubatly, and Zangelan Districts, as well as most of Lachin District, all newly vacated by Armenian forces. The protesters who gathered here overnight accused the government of betrayal. Furthermore, some Russians will see good reason for rapprochement with Turkey to pursue a shared aim of limiting Western involvement in the region. In and around Karabakh are dozens of Armenian churches, some dating back to the fifth century. The development of a cooperation platform in the 3+3 format, which Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan raised in November 2020, came recently to the agenda in order to address the issues of security and unblocking economic and transport ties in the region. Overarching this is the unresolved issue of status, which has been the crux of the dispute for more than a century. Despite the end of fighting, Armenia and Azerbaijan are still contesting many issues. "We would have far more losses," he said. According to Article 3 of the trilateral declaration declaring the end of the conflict in Karabakh which was signed in November 2020 between Aliyev, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russian elements were placed in the Armenian-populated areas of Karabakh and in the Lachin corridor. Yet so far there is little evidence of strategic planning from anyone, with the possible exception of Russia. The 2020 conflict has created new festering problems, such as the displacement of Karabakh Armenians from their homes and the disappointment of Azerbaijanis from Lachin District that they were unable to return home. The peacemaking forces of the Russian Federation will be deployed for five years, a term to be automatically extended for subsequent five-year terms unless either Party notifies about its intention to terminate this clause six months before the expiration of the current term.
Leading politicians, with the exception of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, are in talks to find a way out of this deep crisis. During twenty-six years of Armenian occupation, they were almost completely leveled, and it will take years to make them habitable again. Once part of Azerbaijan's territory, the area of Zangezur was later assigned by the Soviet Union to the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic in the 1920s. Strategic calculations may not be easy when emotions are still riding high.
Further north, prior to the ceasefire agreement, Azerbaijan called for the return of seven villages in the Kazakh Districtthree of which are in Soviet-era exclaves surrounded by Armenian territoryas well as the Kerki exclave next to Nakhichevan. What Role for Europe in the New Post-War Caucasus? "This is not a victory but there is not defeat until you consider yourself defeated," Mr Pashinyan said. In his November 10 victory speech, Aliyev, who had once promised Nagorny Karabakh the highest autonomy in the world, declared, The status went to hell. It is a home they have never seen. A second area where European actors in particular can play a role is the much longer-term ambition of fostering dialogue and reconciliation between Armenians and Azerbaijanis. A reshuffle in the government saw Masis Mailyan, the internationalist-minded de facto foreign minister, replaced by presidential aide David Babayan. The conflict has also weakened Nagorny Karabakhs economy.
A joint Turkish-Russian observation center was established to monitor the truce. It will take time to rebuild these links. The Armenian side did not embrace it strongly before the conflict and the Azerbaijani side has disavowed it as a result of the conflict. A minority vows to use force to recapture lost lands. There is a mood of national celebration in Baku. A new role is needed for not only for the Minsk Group co-chairs but for the OSCE mission operating in the region, the civilian team led by Polish diplomat Andrzei Kasprzyk since 1996. Stay connected to Judy Dempsey's Strategic Europe with a new smartphone app for Android and iOS devices, Rue du Congrs, 15 This is a highly sensitive issue. Putin previously said that he did not want to take responsibility for the conflict as Russia would only get blamed by both sides. "In general, we are very glad for having this high level of interaction with NATO, and we are very glad that NATO appreciates our efforts," said Aliyev. We use cookies in a limited and restricted manner for specific purposes. How can all this be paid for? At the same time, with one of the active and leading NATO members, Turkey, we had seven joint military trainings only this year. This can be interpreted both as Aliyev seeking to build his legacy and as a preemptive strike against those Azerbaijanis who express disappointment, either with the decision to halt the war on November 9, the introduction of Russian peacekeepers, or the difficult state of Azerbaijans economy. The Armenian side says that these men were defending two Armenian villages in an area that should have been under the protection of Russian peacekeepers. Perhaps the most hopeful prospects for cross-border cooperation are for business groups, a constituency that now has a chance to work together as never before. Protesters ransacked the prime minister's official residence and Mr Pashinyan said they "stole a computer, a clock, perfume, drivers licence and other items". The latest large-scale clashes erupted in the Karabakh region on Sept. 27, 2020, when the Armenian army launched attacks on civilians and Azerbaijani forces, violating several humanitarian cease-fire agreements. Orkhan Baghirov is a leading advisor at the Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center) in Baku, Azerbaijan. From there, the line will be connected to the railway line that continues to Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and other regions of Azerbaijan through the Nakhchivan corridor. By using this corridor, Armenia also could obtain a rail connection with Iran. Noting that Azerbaijan's policies are "very open and straightforward," Aliyev said: "I hope that if there is goodwill from the Armenian side, we can start, as we proposed, working on a peace agreement between the two countries and to put an end to hostility.". The Armenian leader in Nagorno-Karabakh, Arayik Harutyunyan, said a ceasefire had been unavoidable after the loss of Karabakh's second biggest town, Shusha (known as Shushi in Armenian). What a peace deal means for Nagorno-Karabakh. The only significant initiative on the conflict, undertaken in 2018 by then national security adviser John Bolton, linked it to the administrations Iran policy. But their future agenda is still up in the air. Narratives are set from above. Many of these, as well as most of the population of Karabakhs main city, Stepanakert, fled to Armenia during the conflict. The 3+3 format for the region comprises three Caucasian states Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia -- alongside three neighboring states Russia, Turkey and Iran. In the same speech, Aliyev said, All visits must stop. "Today, there are no customs [posts] in the Lachin corridor. So far, there has been little discussion of what happens next and much anguish over a conflict Armenian leaders have referred to as a potential second genocide and Azerbaijani-Turkish aggression, drawing a direct link to the Armenian Genocide of 19151916. "It is also important for regional stability, security, because energy security is already a part of the national security of the countries.". It is unlikely to be able to afford these projects on its own. The conflict ended on Nov. 10, 2020 in a Russia-brokered deal that saw Armenia cede swathes of territory it had occupied for decades. Currently, overland and air connections of Nakhchivan with other regions of Azerbaijan are available either from Iran in the south or through Turkey in the west. By using this website, you agree to our cookie policy. It will also positively affect the tourism relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey as it will create a more comfortable land route for the movement of tourists. The Azerbaijani side says that because they were captured after the November 10 ceasefire agreement and that they were saboteurs, they are liable for prosecution. These announcements look rather premature, preceding the launch of a wider program for the territories or any public consultation on how this will happen. It can also usefully act as neutral international eyes and ears to report on civilian complaints in the conflict zone, monitor unauthorized or suspicious activities, and mediate local disputes. The only groups who challenge these narratives were a few brave civil society activists and intellectuals. For their part, many Azerbaijanis (with some justification) objected that the world was ignoring the fate of destroyed graveyards and damaged mosques in the seven territories newly liberated from Armenian control and the town of Shusha. There are unconfirmed reports that Moscow is considering giving the Karabakh Armenians Russian passports, a tactic it has employed with residents of the other post-Soviet breakaway regions of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transdniestria. Based on the declaration, Aliyev said it is "a kind of obligation" for Armenia to provide all the necessary facilities, "though it was not easy during this one year to move forward.". Azerbaijan did itself no favors with what looks like an aggressive act of cultural appropriation. DISCLAIMER: All opinions in this column reflect the views of the author(s), not of EURACTIV Media network. On November 10, 2020, a Russia-brokered ceasefire agreement halted a forty-four-day-long Armenia-Azerbaijan war over the disputed territory of Nagorny Karabakh. However, as of February 1, 2021, the Azerbaijani side still had many captives and the Armenian side a few. This publication reflects the views of the author, and the European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.
Using this corridor, Turkey will directly access Azerbaijan without using the land routes of Georgia and Iran. What are Armenia and Azerbaijan fighting over? No foreign citizen can enter that area without our permission. For all the others, it was the cornerstone of their political agendas.3. Despite a dramatic loss of popularity compared to his sky-high ratings he enjoyed after the Velvet Revolution of 2018, he has thus far managed to cling to power. "It is a matter of future discussions," he added.
1000 Brussels, Belgium, Phone: +32 2 735 56 50 In much of their rhetoric and actions, the two countries continue to act like they are still at war.
Groups are breaking out in chants and singing the national anthem.
Such continued tensions poison trust and hold back normalization and reconciliation efforts. Russia has indicated that it wants to preserve the previous main diplomatic mechanism for the Karabakh conflict, the twenty-four-year-old French-Russian-U.S. co-chairmanship of the OSCEs Minsk Group. Yet Moscow also wants to avoid the threat of an Azerbaijani veto on extending the mission in 2025. Armenia has also agreed to withdraw from several other adjacent areas over the next few weeks. There was much unfinished business from the first Karabakh conflict, including unpunished war crimes. In the past, these civil society initiatives received funding from an EU initiative, the European Partnership for the Peaceful Settlement of the Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Establishing the Nakhchivan corridor in parallel to BTK Azerbaijan will add a new artery to the Middle Corridor, the mainland corridor that connects Asia with Europe and will strengthen its position as a regional transportation hub in the region. Moscows engagement involves more than just peacekeeping. It will also eliminate the past security concerns regarding Nakhchivan. This calls for a triple agenda of assisting the huge task of reconstructing and resettling the de-occupied Azerbaijani territories, providing assistance to Armenian-administered Nagorny Karabakh, and supporting region-wide transport links and economic connectivity. It is far from clear who will now be negotiating with whom. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called the deal "incredibly painful both for me and both for our people". At Martyrs' Alley - a memorial to Azerbaijan's fallen soldiers - there are surging crowds among a sea of flags. There are reports that the number of Russian troops may exceed what is stipulated in the November agreement. For more efficient monitoring of the Parties fulfilment of the agreements, a peacemaking centre shall be established to oversee the ceasefire. No bilateral agreement between Moscow and Ankara has been made public. And this is a crisis: the defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh is a devastating one. No international organization except for the Red Cross can go there.. Even if they eventually return to Armenia, the question remains of what happens to Karabakh Armenian military units, whose command and composition are local. De Waal is a senior fellow with Carnegie Europe, specializing in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus region. Balasanyan was a commander in the first war and a close associate of former Karabakhi and Armenian president Robert Kocharyan, who maintains a personal relationship with Putin. A trilateral meeting in Moscow on January 11, 2021, the first occasion the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan had met with each other since the conflict, ended with a pledge to work on economic issues but without a statement on outstanding political differences. The United States is regarded as more even-handed, having built up relationships on both sides, but has increasingly disengaged from the issue in recent years. In the Armenian-Azerbaijani context, it is the cause of yet more bitterness. Last month, Aliyev and Pashinyan met with Putin in Sochi, Russia. Its troops face physical risk if violence breaks out on the ground. Read about our approach to external linking. There were street celebrations in Baku in response to the peace deal, Armenian separatist forces have steadily lost territory to Azerbaijan since fighting broke out, In protest at the deal, large crowds stormed the government headquarters in Yerevan, Both sides have accused each other of shelling civilian areas. 15-01-2021 Their parents were driven from Nagorno-Karabakh almost 30 years ago, but now they intend to move there to build a new life. He has laid the foundation stone of a new international airport in Fizuli and said that it would start operating in 2021. As long as I am President, there will be no status., For those reasons, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on January 18 that negotiations should continue but elaborated, Exactly because the problem of the status of Nagorno-Karabakh is controversial, if we take the positions of Yerevan and Baku, the three leaders decided to leave it be for future consideration.. In 2021 all actors in the dispute must make a number of crucial decisions on next steps. Aliyev has stated that the conflict is now resolved, and some Azerbaijanis now say that the dispute with Karabakh Armenians is a domestic issue that Yerevan should have no say in. According to point 1, the parties to the conflict must stop intheir current positions. Point 4 of the agreement says, Thepeacemaking forces oftheRussian Federation shall be deployed concurrently with thewithdrawal oftheArmenian troops. The two sides interpret these points differently. Relations between the former Soviet republics of Azerbaijan and Armenia have been tense since 1991, when the Armenian military occupied Nagorno-Karabakh, also known as Upper Karabakh, a territory internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, and seven adjacent regions. The Parties shall exchange prisoners of war, hostages and other detained persons, and dead bodies. Chappelle show cancelled over joke controversy, Putin 'too healthy' and Russian gas supply resumes, New telescope catches dead suns smashing together, Taliban detained and abused me - female journalist, Three dead in 24 hours after Spanish bull runs, The country where having a pet could soon land you in jail. Corrections: In the third paragraph, reference to Armenian settlers has been changed to reflect that they left Armenian-occupied districts outside Nagorny Karabakh, rather than Nagorny Karabakh itself. "At this stage, we have achieved an agreement on building the rail connection from Azerbaijan through Armenia to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and also an agreement on the construction of the highway, but the exact route of the highway has not yet been identified," Aliyev said. Russia has a military base in Armenia, and the two countries are members of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization. The OSCEs Basic Principles framework document, which was the basis for negotiations since 2006, looks even less viable than before. 3 Alexander Iskandaryan, Skype interview with the author from Yerevan, January 11, 2021. That means keeping on the best possible terms with Azerbaijan and assuring Baku that Karabakh is no longer a separatist territory. Yet it also needs to see sufficient stabilization of relations between the two countries to facilitate its other agendathe restoration of transport links, which connect Russia by road and rail to Armenia, Iran, and Turkey but bypass Georgia, with its high mountain roads and pro-Western orientation.
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